Longevity.Technology's new report models a $617 billion target addressable market for gerotherapeutics by 2045, built on explicit assumptions about eligibility from age 45, roughly $6,000 annual pricing, 35% uptake over a decade, and first approval in 2035. A separate bottom-up valuation of 3,036 therapeutic assets across 781 companies yields $230 billion through existing disease approval pathways. The report's interactive model allows each assumption to be altered, making the forecast testable rather than declarative.
Key Points
- $617b figure is conditional top-down forecast, not current valuation
- Default model assumes preventive treatment beginning at age 45
- Bottom-up asset valuation of 781 companies yields $230b
Longevity Analysis
The commercial case for treating aging biology rests on whether intervention begins before age-related decline is established rather than after disease appears — an eligibility threshold of 45 implies a preventive model in which regenerative capacity is supported while it remains intact. Pricing anchored to GLP-1 economics signals that scalable, repeat-dose therapeutics, not one-time cell and gene interventions, currently define the expected route to population-level access. For clinicians and researchers, the value of an adjustable model lies in separating what is known from what is assumed, which is the same discipline required when interpreting any single biomarker or intervention claim.
Original published by Longevity.Technology, by Eleanor Garth.